Δημοσιεύθηκε από το Κυπριακό Κέντρο Ευρωπαϊκών και Διεθνών Υποθέσεων
του Πανεπιστημίου Λευκωσίας
(Περιοδική έκδοση InDepth Vol.11 Issue 5 / 16.10.2014)
Published by the Cyprus Centre of European and International Affairs
University of Nicosia
The
ISIL has succeeded to change the Western agenda in the Middle East
within months, through their key military moves in Iraq and the
north-eastern Syrian territories and by means of a systematically
conducted psychological warfare through internet and social media. Following
the video footages of the Islamic State's military operations and
beheadings of western journalists and humanitarian aid workers, Western
and the Middle Eastern states are facing an unprecedented strategic
consensus. The numerous regional players are ostensibly setting aside
their contradictory interests and unilateral endeavors, reacting
positively to the formation of an American-led multidisciplinary
coalition against radical Jihadism, in general and ISIL, in particular.
President
Barak Obama in a dramatic televised address on 11.9.2014, called for a
regional alliance against the ISIL. Nevertheless, such a consensus
should not be misinterpreted that long-standing differences in the
region would ultimately disappear. On the contrary, it would not be
cynical to assess that the ISIL threat will eventually prove itself as
an important opportunity for the various regional players to promote
their own interests, which contradict those of their meant-to-be
temporary allies.
The
US administration for the last decade has failed to bring peace and
stability to Iraq. The US has failed to promote the peace negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Washington was proven to
be reluctant to force an end to the Syrian civil war. American efforts
to bring Israel and Turkey back together did not reach any results.
US-Iran relations did not show any amelioration. The US has failed, so
far to impose a strong stance on the dispute over the natural gas
reserves between Turkey and Cyprus which could lead to the island's
reunification and to the end of the Turkish military occupation, while
the Kurdish rebels seem to be gaining points in the regional strategic
mosaic – a fact that Ankara is watching very closely. After the recent
conflict in Gaza, Egyptian President Al-Sissi reassessed his country's
pro-Western stance. Qatar, despite its strong ties with
the US-administration and the West, appears to have alienated itself
towards the other GCC countries and Egypt when it comes to exclusively
Arab affairs and this has resulted in Doha's diplomatic isolation from
its Arab counterparts. On the other hand, the internationally
delegitimized Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Damascus is being reinforced
on the ground, although the situation recently in the Syrian-Israeli
border is considered to be unstable.
